Friday, March 7, 2014

Making the Opening Day Start with Three Different Teams

David Branson, the man behind the terrific baseball Twitter account @obxleatherman, dropped this interesting note on Nolan Ryan today.



Ryan is the only pitcher to make three Opening Day starts for three different franchises. Tom Seaver and Dennis Martinez almost did it, but Seaver needed to make a third opening start for the White Sox and El Presidente needed to do the same with Baltimore.

Who has opened a team's campaign on the mound for the most franchises? Hall of Famers Bert Blyleven and Gaylord Perry both did it with five teams.

Over last 100 years there have been 41 pitchers to make at least one Opening Day start for at least three different franchises The Baseball-Reference Play Index box score data goes back to 1914, but it's hard to imagine someone from way back then getting the nod for three different teams anyway.



Pitcher Opening Day GS
Tom Seaver 16 11 Mets 3 Reds 2 White Sox
Jack Morris 14 11 Tigers 1 Twins 2 Blue Jays
Randy Johnson 14 6 Mariners 6 Diamondbacks 2 Yanks
Roger Clemens 13 8 Red Sox 1 Blue Jays 4 Yanks
Bert Blyleven 12 6 Twins 1 Rangers 2 Pirates 2 Indians 1 Angels
Dennis Martinez 11 2 Orioles 6 Expos 3 Indians
Fergie Jenkins 11 7 Cubs 2 Rangers 2 Red Sox
Pete Alexander 11 4 Phillies 5 Cubs 2 Cardinals
Rick Sutcliffe 9 2 Indians 5 Cubs 2 Orioles
Nolan Ryan 9 3 Angels 3 Astros 3 Rangers
Gaylord Perry 9 1 Giants 4 Indians 1 Rangers 2 Padres 1 Mariners
Livan Hernandez 9 1 Marlins 3 Giants 1 Expos/3 Nats 1 Twins
Rick Reuschel 7 4 Cubs 1 Pirates 2 Giants
Bobo Newsom 7 3 Browns 1 Senators 2 Tigers 1 Athletics
Kevin Millwood 7 2 Phillies 4 Rangers 1 Orioles
Jon Lieber 7 2 Pirates 3 Cubs 2 Phillies
Jimmy Key 7 3 Blue Jays 3 Yanks 1 Orioles
Ned Garver 7 4 Browns 2 Tigers 1 Athletics
Kevin Brown 7 1 Rangers 2 Marlins 1 Padres 3 Dodgers
Early Wynn 6 2 Senators 2 Indians 2 White Sox
Dennis Leonard 6 4 Senators 1 Phillies 1 Cubs
Sad Sam Jones 6 1 Red Sox 1 Yanks 1 Senators 3 White Sox
Wes Ferrell 6 2 Indians 3 Red Sox 1 Senators
John Burkett 6 3 Giants 1 Marlins 1 Rangers 1 Braves
Mike Torrez 5 1 Expos 2 Athletics 1 Red Sox 1 Mets
Terry Mulholland 5 3 Phillies 1 Giants 1 Cubs
Pete Harnisch 5 2 Astros 1 Mets 2 Reds
Curt Davis 5 2 Phillies 1 Cardinals 2 Dodgers
Andy Benes 5 3 Padres 1 Cardinals 1 Diamondbacks
Jerry Reuss 4 2 Pirates 1 Dodgers 1 White Sox
Jack Quinn 4 2 Orioles 1 Red Sox 1 Dodgers
Jerry Koosman 4 1 Mets 2 Twins 1 White Sox
Ken Hill 4 1 Cardinals 2 Rangers 1 Angels
Mudcat Grant 4 2 Indians 1 Twins 1 Expos
David Cone 4 1 Mets 1 Blue Jays 2 Yankees
Tim Belcher 4 2 Dodgers 1 Royals 1 Angels
Bill Wight 3 1 White Sox 1 Red Sox 1 Orioles
David Wells 3 1 Blue Jays 1 White Sox 1 Red Sox
Danny Jackson 3 1 Royals 1 Reds 1 Cubs
Waite Hoyt 3 1 Yankees 1 Dodgers 1 Pirates
Erik Bedard 3 1 Orioles 1 Mariners 1 Pirates

Bartolo Colon (Indians/Angels) would make this list in a few weeks, but Jon Niese is slated to open the season for the Mets with Colon behind him in the two spot. Tim Hudson (A's/Braves) is new to the Giants, but Madison Bumgarner is lined up for their opener. Perhaps Johan Santana (Twins/Mets) can pull a miracle and not only make the Orioles out of spring training, but be tabbed as the ace.

Monday, March 3, 2014

The Dodgers, PECOTA, and Leading the Majors in Wins by A Lot

The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projected standings are out and the system really loves the Los Angeles Dodgers. These projection systems are typically pretty conservative, but this has the Dodgers finishing 98-64, nine games better than the majors' second-best team, the Tampa Bay Rays (89-73).

It would be quite unusual for only one team to reach the 90-win mark. We haven't seen a full season with even three or fewer 90-win teams since 1968. 11 teams got there last year so you can count on at least a few of the eight teams projected to win 87-89 to tack on some more W's.


The last time a team lead the majors by nine or more games was 2001, when the Mariners broke the A.L. wins record with 116. The A's were a distant second with 102 victories, and since they were also in the A.L. West, they were merely a wild-card playoff entrant.


The majors' best team has led the field by nine or more games 18 times, but it's only happened six times since World War II.

Year MLB Leader Wins 2nd in MLB Wins GB MLB Leader Finish
2001 Mariners 116 Athletics 102 14 Lost ALCS
1995 Indians 100 Braves 90 10 Lost World Series
1986 Mets 108 Astros 96 12 Won World Series
1975 Reds 108 Athletics 98 10 Won World Series
1969 Orioles 109 Mets 100 9 Lost World Series
1967 Cardinals 101 Red Sox 92 9.5 Won World Series
1944 Cardinals 105 Pirates 90 14.5 Won World Series
1940 Reds 100 Tigers 90 10.5 Won World Series
1939 Yankees 106 Reds 97 10.5 Won World Series
1938 Yankees 99 Cubs 89 10 Won World Series
1936 Yankees 102 Giants 92 10.5 Won World Series
1932 Yankees 107 Athletics 94 13 Won World Series
1927 Yankees 110 Pirates 94 16 Won World Series
1907 Cubs 107 Tigers 92 14 Won World Series
1906 Cubs 116 Giants 96 20 Lost World Series
1905 Giants 105 Pirates 96 9 Won World Series
1904 Giants 106 Americans 95 11.5 No World Series
1902 Pirates 103 Athletics 83 18.5 No World Series

The 1995 strike-shortened season was only 144 games, so the 100-win Indians were on pace to win 112.5 games over a full season. The Braves were on pace to reach the century mark as well, but 11 games behind Cleveland. Over 162 games, the Indians' gap grows by one game.

**A short-season honorable mention goes to the 1919 Reds. Cincy's win total outpaced the White Sox 96-88, just missing this list. But a 140-game slate due to World War I meant that over a full season, the Reds were on pace to pick up an extra game in Chicago. The Reds are slept on as a historically great team because of the Black Sox scandal, but maybe they would have won fair and square anyway. Over a 154-game season, the Reds win 105 or 106 games (to the White Sox 96 or 97). Cincinnati even had a better run differential than the Pale Hose (+176 to +133).


With 98 wins, the Dodgers are projected to lead the National League by ten games. The Cardinals and Nationals are slated to take the other two divisions, but way behind L.A. at 88-74. How often has a team won its league by double digits? Much more often. 48 times, including five teams that also appear in the above list (1906 Cubs, 1932 Yanks, 1944 Cards, 1986 Mets, 2001 M's).

Year AL/NL Leader Wins 2nd in League Wins GB Playoffs
2005 Cardinals 100 Braves 90 10 Lost in NLCS
2001 Mariners 116 Athletics 102 14 Lost in ALCS
1998 Yankees 114 Red Sox 92 22 Won World Series
1995 Indians 100 Red Sox 86 14 Lost World Series
1988 Athletics 104 Twins 91 13 Lost World Series
1986 Mets 108 Astros 96 12 Won World Series
1984 Tigers 104 Blue Jays 89 15 Won World Series
1975 Reds 108 Pirates 92 15.5 Won World Series
1970 Orioles 108 Twins 98 10 Won World Series
1970 Reds 102 Pirates 89 13 Lost World Series
1969 Orioles 109 Twins 97 12 Lost World Series
1968 Tigers 103 Orioles 91 12 Won World Series
1967 Cardinals 101 Giants 91 10.5 Won World Series
1958 Yankees 92 White Sox 82 10 Won World Series
1955 Dodgers 98 Braves 85 13.5 Won World Series
1953 Dodgers 105 Braves 92 13 Lost World Series
1947 Yankees 97 Tigers 85 12 Won World Series
1946 Red Sox 104 Tigers 92 12 Lost World Series
1944 Cardinals 105 Pirates 90 14.5 Won World Series
1943 Yankees 98 Senators 84 13.5 Won World Series
1943 Cardinals 105 Reds 87 18 Lost World Series
1941 Yankees 101 Red Sox 84 17 Won World Series
1940 Reds 100 Dodgers 88 12 Won World Series
1939 Yankees 106 Red Sox 89 17 Won World Series
1937 Yankees 102 Tigers 89 13 Won World Series
1936 Yankees 102 Tigers 83 19.5 Won World Series
1932 Yankees 107 Athletics 94 13 Won World Series
1931 Athletics 107 Yankees 94 13.5 Lost World Series
1931 Cardinals 101 Giants 87 13 Won World Series
1929 Athletics 104 Yankees 88 18 Won World Series
1929 Cubs 98 Pirates 88 10.5 Lost World Series
1927 Yankees 110 Athletics 91 19 Won World Series
1923 Yankees 98 Tigers 83 16 Won World Series
1918 Cubs 84 Giants 71 10.5 Lost World Series
1917 Giants 98 Phillies 87 10 Lost World Series
1914 Braves 94 Giants 84 10.5 Won World Series
1913 Giants 101 Phillies 88 12.5 Lost World Series
1912 Red Sox 105 Senators 91 14 Won World Series
1912 Giants 103 Pirates 93 10 Lost World Series
1911 Athletics 101 Tigers 89 13.5 Won World Series
1910 Athletics 102 Highlanders 88 14.5 Won World Series
1910 Cubs 104 Giants 91 13 Lost World Series
1907 Cubs 107 Pirates 91 17 Won World Series
1906 Cubs 116 Giants 96 20 Lost World Series
1904 Giants 106 Cubs 93 13 No World Series
1903 Americans 91 Athletics 75 14.5 Won World Series
1902 Pirates 103 Superbas 75 27.5 No World Series

We'll likely see several teams win 90+ games so perhaps the Dodgers won't run away and hide. But there's also a chance that L.A. could outperform their projection and go north of 100 wins. It's something to keep an eye on as we go through the season.

By the way, here are the projected postseason matchups based on the PECOTA standings:

American League
Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels (87-75) at Boston Red Sox (88-74)
ALDS: Winner plays Tampa Bay Rays (89-73)
ALDS: Detroit Tigers (88-74) vs. Oakland Athletics (88-74)

National League
Wild Card: Atlanta Braves (84-78) at San Francisco Giants (87-75)
NLDS: Winner plays Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
NLDS: Washington Nationals (88-74) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)