Super Bowl XLVIII should be fantastic as the Broncos and Seahawks will meet in the fifth post-merger Super Bowl between the league's top scoring offense and top scoring defense.
| SB (Year) |
#1 Offense |
#1 Defense |
Result |
| 1978 (XIII) |
Cowboys |
Steelers |
Steelers 35-31 |
| 1984 (XIX) |
Dolphins |
49ers |
49ers 38-16 |
| 1989 (XXIV) |
49ers |
Broncos |
49ers 55-10 |
| 1990 (XXV) |
Bills |
Giants |
Giants 20-19 |
| 2013 (XLVIII) |
Broncos |
Seahawks |
??? |
It's worth noting that the first Super Bowl featured the NFL's top defense (Packers) and the AFL's top offense (Chiefs). Super Bowl IV saw the AFL's top defense (Chiefs) take on the NFL's best offense and defense (Vikings).
This will be the second Super Bowl between the top offense and top defense in yards allowed. The Bucs (top D) rocked the Raiders (top O) in Super Bowl XXXVII.
This year's Super Bowl participants were longtime division rivals. The expansion Seahawks joined the AFC West in 1976, but switched to the NFC after the 2001 season. We've had one Seattle-Denver meeting in the NFL postseason, and when we look at other sports there are also three meetings from the NBA.
| NFL |
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Round |
Seattle |
Denver |
Result |
| 1983 |
Wild Card |
Seahawks |
Broncos |
31-7 Seahawks |
| NBA |
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Round |
Seattle |
Denver |
Result |
| 1978 |
West Finals |
SuperSonics |
Nuggets |
4-2 SuperSonics |
| 1988 |
First Round |
SuperSonics |
Nuggets |
3-2 Nuggets |
| 1994 |
First Round |
SuperSonics |
Nuggets |
3-2 Nuggets |
1983 Wild Card
With new head coach Chuck Knox, the Seahawks went 9-7 to reach the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The team was buoyed by a midseason quarterback switch from Jim Zorn to Dave Krieg. The Broncos, with rookie QB John Elway, also went 9-7 to sneak into the postseason as well. The AFC Wild Card game would be on Christmas Eve at the Kingdome.
Seattle got on the board first in the opening quarter with Krieg's 17-yard touchdown pass to Steve Largent. Running back Curt Warner (not to be confused with Kurt Warner) carried the load though, running the ball on six of the drive's eight plays. Denver started Steve DeBerg at quarterback, and he tied the game with a 13-yard strike to Jesse Myles.
In the second quarter, DeBerg threw a pick deep in Seattle territory. Cornerback Kerry Justin's long return led to the period's only score, Norm Johnson's 37-yard field goal. Down 10-7 right before halftime, Denver missed another chance to take the lead when Gerald Willhite fumbled at the 5-yard line. The second half was all Seahawks.
On Seattle's first drive after the break, two deep passes by Krieg set up his 5-yard touchdown throw to Pete Metzelaars that made it 17-7. The host's next drive resulted in another score, this one on Krieg's 18-yard pass to Paul Johns on the first play of the fourth quarter.
Elway relieved DeBerg in the final stanza and played well, (10-for-15, 123 yards) but it was too late. David Hughes wrapped up the scoring with a 2-yard touchdown run to close out a 31-7 Seahawks victory.
Krieg was 12-for-13 for 200 yards passing. Excluding those that threw only one pass, he is one of four players to achieve a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a postseason game.
In the divisional round, the Seahawks traveled to Miami and pulled out a fourth-quarter comeback against rookie Dan Marino and the Dolphins. Seattle reached the AFC title game, but they were blitzed by the eventual champion Raiders in Los Angeles, 30-14.
With playoff games against fellow AFC West teams Denver and L.A., those Seahawks are one of four teams to play two division rivals in one postseason. The full list:
1982 Dolphins - beat Patriots in Wild Card, beat Jets in AFC Championship
1983 Seahawks - beat Broncos in Wild Card, lost to Raiders in AFC Championship
1985 Patriots - beat Jets in Wild Card, beat Dolphins in AFC Championship
1997 Buccaneers - beat Lions in Wild Card, lost to Packers in Divisional
NBA
1978 West Finals
With stars David Thompson and Dan Issel, Larry Brown guided the Nuggets to 48 wins and the Midwest Division crown. The SuperSonics got off to a 5-17 start, axed coach Bob Hopkins, replaced him with Lenny Wilkens and went 42-18 the rest of the way. Denver edged the Bucks in seven games to reach the West Finals. Their opponent would be the Sonics, who beat the Lakers in the first round before upsetting top-seeded defending-champion Portland.
Denver opened the series with a home victory, but Seattle took Game Two on the road to even the set. The Sonics took control on home court, using fourth-quarter surges to earn wins in the next two games and hold a 3-1 advantage. They missed an opportunity to clinch in Denver in the fifth game when Thompson scored 35 points and Issel added 27 to keep the Nuggets alive. But Game Six back in Seattle was a blowout, with Downtown Freddie Brown scoring 26 and Gus Williams scoring 24 in the Sonics' 123-108 win.
It was on to the NBA Finals, where they played another upstart squad, Wes Unseld's Washington Bullets. The two sides traded wins through the first six contests, setting up a winner-take-all seventh game in Seattle. The Bullets held off a late Sonics comeback and won 105-99. It's the last time a road team won Game Seven of the NBA Finals. The Sonics would get their revenge a year later, winning an NBA Finals rematch, 4-1.
1988 First Round
Alex English led the league's highest-scoring offense as the Nuggets won 54 games and earned the two seed in the West. The Sonics reached the playoffs as the seven seed, but despite being ten games worse in the standings, they gave Denver a scare in the first round.
Denver used a 42-point fourth quarter to earn a narrow victory in the opener, but Seattle took back home-court advantage with a blowout win two nights later. Tom Chambers scored a game-high 34 points in Game Three, but his Sonics fell by 11 at home. All-Star Xavier McDaniel scored 27 for Seattle in Game Four to tie up the series.
Game Five belonged to the Nuggets. English, Fat Lever, Danny Schayes and Michael Adams all scored more than 20 points in Denver's 115-96 win.
In the next round against third-seeded Dallas, the Nuggets were tied 2-2 after four games, but the Mavericks won the next two to reach the West Finals for the first time in franchise history.
1994 First Round
This was the first time in NBA history that an eight seed knocked off a one seed in the first round of the playoffs. The Gary Payton-Shawn Kemp-Detlef Schrempf SuperSonics went 63-19 and became the 15th team to win 63 games in a season (it's been done 12 times since). The Nuggets barely tallied a winning record, going 42-40.
It looked as if Seattle would make quick work of the Nuggets, blowing out Denver by 24 in the first game and winning by double digits again in the second. The Nuggets avoided a sweep with an easy win in Game Three, thanks in part to 31 points from Reggie Williams and Dikembe Mutombo's 19-point, 13-rebound effort. LaPhonso Ellis posted a 27-17 line in Game Four as the Nuggets outscored the Sonics 12-3 in overtime force a deciding fifth game back in Seattle. Denver showed heart in hanging with the league's best, but they were going back to Key Arena, where the Sonics went 37-4 during the regular season, plus the two easy wins to start this series.
Behold, NBC's open for Game Five, featuring Dick Enberg and Roundball Rock.
After more than 47 minutes, the Nuggets and Sonics were all even. In the final moments, LaPhonso Ellis pushed visiting Denver into the lead.
The Sonics needed some last-second heroics to force overtime. Kendall Gill grabbed Gary Payton's air ball and tied the game at 88 with 0.5 left. Dikembe Mutombo's final shot was too late and five more minutes were required.
That seemed to be Denver's best chance. Seattle looked in control in the extra period, forcing 24-second violations on the first two Nuggets possessions and leading 92-90 two minutes in.
After Shawn Kemp set up Payton for a go-ahead bucket, Reggie Williams gave Denver the lead with a three-pointer, only for Kemp to score to put Seattle in front again, 94-93. But despite committing yet another shot-clock violation, the Nuggets recovered on defense, shutting out the Sonics for the rest of the game.
Ellis' three-point play made it 96-94 Nuggets. Mutombo followed with a block of Detlef Schrempf and Williams stole it from Payton on the next Seattle set. Still, a fourth 24-second violation gave the Sonics the ball back with 32 seconds left.
Mutombo made his eighth block of the game, this one of Kemp, to preserve the two-point lead. Two Robert Pack free throws later, it was 98-94 and the Nuggets closed out the shocking upset.
The image of an ecstatic Mutombo laying on the court with the ball is the indelible image of this series. It surely is the biggest Denver-Seattle sports moment, at least until Sunday night.
Sam Miller and Ben Lindbergh have a terrific podcast at Baseball Prospectus. Recently, Sam joked that MLB should have a rule that prohibited teams from carrying two players of the same age on their 25-man roster.
That is just awesome, so I tried to see what kind of team I could put together under these rules. Obviously, if the whole league was doing this, I couldn't construct a roster as talented as this. For the purposes of this exercise, the player's age for the upcoming season is their age on June 30, 2014.
I chose one player of every age from 19 to 43 because I just couldn't coax a 44-year-old Mariano Rivera out of retirement. Many of the ages in the middle have so many great players, I could have made a bunch of different teams. Let's take a deeper look at this squad.
Age 19: Carlos Correa
The first-overall pick of the 2012 draft, this shortstop is going to be a cornerstone in the Astros rebuilding efforts. He was born on September 22, 1994, during the time that the players were on strike and Ken Burns' Baseball was airing on PBS.
I saw him play very briefly during at the end of the 2012 Appalachian League season. I was the play-by-play voice of the Bluefield Blue Jays and after he moved up from the Gulf Coast League, his Greeneville Astros hosted the Jays for the final series of the year. Starting the first game of the set, made an error in the top of the first inning, struck out in the bottom half and was taken out of the game. He didn't play in the last two contests so that was it for me, but he had a big 2013.
Last year in the low-A Midwest League, he hit .320/.405/.467 for the Quad Cities River Bandits. In a league filled with players three or four years his senior, he finished in the circuit's top ten in most offensive categories. He's not quite ready for the big leagues, but I bet he's the top 19-year-old in pro ball.
Age 20: Byron Buxton
When Correa was taken first overall in 2012, the Twins snagged Buxton with the very next pick. I saw him that August in Bluefield when he was manning center for the Elizabethton Twins. One time he beat out an infield single on a routine grounder to short. Dude is fast. Last year he moved up and split time between low-A and high-A, totaling a .334/.424/.520 slash line with Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers.
I also considered top prospects Miguel Sano (Twins 3B), Francisco Lindor (Indians SS), Albert Almora (Cubs CF) and Max Fried (Padres LHP)
. But I think Buxton is the best fit in terms of talent and slotting in as a backup outfielder.
Age 21: Jose Fernandez
His 2013 was one of the great 20-year-old pitching seasons in baseball history. Among qualified 20-or-younger hurlers since 1901, his 176 ERA+ trailed only Dwight Gooden's 229 in 1985. Also, only Gooden, Bob Feller, Christy Mathewson and Bert Blyleven topped
Fernandez's 6.3 bWAR.
This age 21 spot made for a very difficult decision, which speaks to the phenomenal group of young talent in the game today. I could have easily made a case for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, plus up-and-comers Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar and Taijuan Walker. I
just chose the pitcher over the position players.
Age 22: Mike Trout
Come on.
Apologies to Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez
.
Related: The Cardinals will continue to be good.
Age 23: Yasiel Puig
Three terrific pitchers stood out with Shelby Miller (another freakin' Cardinal?!), Julio Teheran and Gerrit Cole. But with Fernandez already in tow, I'll focus on position players instead. Wil Myers and Nolan Arenado would be fine choices, with Nick Franklin and Billy Hamilton in the mix as well. But Puig had a monster 2013 in which his 160 wRC+ was fourth in the majors behind Miguel Cabrera, Trout and Chris Davis (min. 400 PA)
. I don't know if he'll be quite as good over a larger sample, but it'll be a thrill to see what he can do in a full season.
Age 24: Andrelton Simmons
Defensive metrics have their flaws, but watching him play shortstop and looking at his stats makes you go, "Yeah that sounds about right." Baseball-Reference pegged his defensive WAR at an all-time single season record 5.4. Of nerdy-nerd stuff ain't your thing, how about this:
I considered the guy who is often on the receiving end of Simmons' throws, first baseman Freddie Freeman, as well as Royals catcher Salvador Perez
. Simmons only hit .248 with a sub-.300 OBP, but his marvelous glove secures this spot. Still, he's got some pop (17 homers last year) and if he improves even to .260 or so, look out.
Age 25: Chris Sale
Starling Marte, Elvis Andrus and Willin Rosario are strong position players, but this choice came down to two ace pitchers. Stephen Strasburg and Sale had identical strikeout percentages, but while the Nat leads in home run rate and opponent batting average, Sale walked far fewer hitters and worked nearly 30 more innings. Along with Strasburg's injury history and the fact that Sale is a southpaw, I went with the White Sox lefty. I guess you could say he makes hitting (puts on sunglasses)...a nightmare.
Age 26: Clayton Kershaw
One of the easiest choices, even with Paul Goldschmidt and Craig Kimbrel available. He and Trout were the first people I put on the team.
Age 27: Andrew McCutchen
The reigning National League MVP edges Buster Posey and Yu Darvish for this spot.
Age 28: Matt Carpenter
Madness. Felix Hernandez, David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Davis, Evan Longoria, Carlos Gomez, Josh Donaldson and Carlos Gonzalez are all
entering their age 28 season. So how in the world did I end up with Carpenter?
I passed on the pitchers with Kershaw, Sale, Fernandez and Scherzer in my rotation. There are a lot of infield combinations you can make with ages 28, 30 and 31. You can do Davis-Pedroia-Cabrera or Longoria-Votto-Cano. I went with Carpenter-Votto-Molina to squeeze value out of the catcher spot. Ask me tomorrow and I probably go with some other combo that involves Posey over McCutchen. This exercise drove me nuts.
Carpenter is slated to move to third base this season, but for this imaginary team I'm keeping him at the keystone corner.
Age 29: Max Scherzer
Troy Tulowitzki was very tempting here, but I chose Simmons and Scherzer over Tulo and say, Madison Bumgarner. Tulowitzki's injury concerns also kept me away from the Rockies standout. Justin Masterson is probably
the runner-up among pitchers at this age.
Age 30: Joey Votto
Anibal Sanchez, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke and Doug Fister are all solid 30-year-olds, but with a Kershaw-Scherzer-Sale-Fernandez rotation I figured I was set with pitching. The Reds first baseman has led his league in on-base percentage for four consecutive seasons, something only Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Wade Boggs and Barry Bonds have done. I gave Dustin Pedroia a long look here and Jacoby Ellsbury is worth mentioning as well, but went with Votto's power and on-base ability
.
Age 31: Yadier Molina
Should I be thrown in jail for not having Miguel Cabrera on this dream team? Perhaps, but the drop-off from Cabrera to fellow 3B Adrian Beltre (or Longoria or Donaldson if you'd like) is offset by what I gain behind the plate. Fellow 31's David Wright and Joe Mauer are overshadowed by Miggy and Yadi at their positions, and Robinson Cano got serious consideration as well. The pitching side features Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver. Not too shabby
.
Age 32: Adrian Gonzalez
The top choices here were Adam Wainwright, James Shields, Ian Kinsler, Mike Napoli and Gonzalez. I thought
the righty-hitting Napoli would be a good choice to join the lefty-swinging Votto at first base, but instead I just went with the guy with the longer track record. I could have also picked one of the starters to finalize my rotation, but as you'll see later, I was hamstrung with my fifth-starter spot.
Age 33: Craig Breslow
The youngest of my five relief pitchers, Breslow is probably the biggest surprise here. Hisashi Iwakuma, Jonathan Papelbon, Shane Victorino and Ben Zobrist would
all be good ones in this slot, but I need a few set-up guys so I took one of the best bullpen southpaws in the game.
Age 34: Brad Ziegler
Another relief arm comes aboard. With my lineup nearly full, I didn't choose Matt Holliday or Albert Pujols or Coco Crisp. Pitching is pretty thin in this group. I considered Neal Cotts, who is a great comeback story with the Rangers, but went with the righty Ziegler. He finished the season as Arizona's closer and his 70.4 ground-ball rate led all qualified relievers in 2013.
Age 35: Adrian Beltre
Still one of the most underrated players in the game. I surely lose some offense in the Beltre-over-Cabrera move, but I get a lot back in the field. From 2010-2013, he's right behind Miguel Cabrera in WAR (28.6-26.0 in bWAR, -7.3-23.5 in fWAR). I hope Beltre has a few more big seasons to boost his Hall of Fame credentials. Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth
are all worthy 35's as well.
Age 36: Joaquin Benoit
The top position players in this spot are Marlon Byrd and Nick Punto, soooooooo let's look at pitchers. Benoit and Grant Balfour were neck and neck for this spot. Their K-rates were almost exactly the same last year, but Balfour issued walks at a higher clip. Benoit also did a better job of keeping the ball in the park, except against David Ortiz. It was close, Benoit was just a little better than Balfour in most categories. I didn't really need a lefty here, but Javier Lopez is worth mentioning.
Age 37: David Ross
I need a backup catcher and Ross is as good as any. Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett are the best moundsmen at this spot, while Carlos Beltran and Mark Ellis are the top position players. If I could take an outfielder, I'd go with Beltran and look elsewhere for a second backstop, but Ross is solid behind Yadi. A.J. Pierzynski would
be a good choice as well, but defense wins out at this position.
Age 38: David Ortiz
Staying in Boston, I might as well go with the World Series MVP to be my DH. With Benoit and Ortiz on the same team, there are no more game-tying grand slams for Joaquin to give up. The immortal Randy Choate was considered for the bullpen and batters included Alfonso Soriano, Torii Hunter, Marco Scutaro and Alex Rodriguez
.
Age 39: Koji Uehara
Another Red Sox player? Fine, but only because Koji is suddenly Superman now. He hasn't walked a batter since August 3rd, spanning 127 batters faced. Sure he walked Martin Prado that night, but he then got Cody Ross to ground into a double play. His previous walk before that was on July 3rd! May 15th was the last time he issued a free pass with less than two strikes. I am very happy with him as my closer.
Age 40: Derek Jeter
This was slim pickings. The only other players available that were active in 2013 were reliever Tim Byrdak (7.71 ERA in eight games), the suspended Miguel Tejada, the retired Todd Helton, Jamey Carroll and Ichiro Suzuki
. With Jeter, I get leadership and clutchiness and knowshowtowinitude.
Age 41: Bartolo Colon
Only four 40-year-olds saw time in 2013: Derek Lowe (13 IP), Ramon Ortiz (25.1 IP), LaTroy Hawkins (pretty good relief season with the Mets) and Colon (outstanding season with Oakland). Colon was so good, I knew I could take him as my fifth starter here and go with position players at many other age slots.
Age 42: Raul Ibanez
Henry Blanco is still kicking (signed a minor-league deal with Arizona), but Andy Pettitte and Chipper Jones are retired. Ibanez grabs the last bench spot not only because he kinda has to, but because he still has some power left in his bat. Last year he tied Ted Williams' record for most homers by a player who was 41 or older (29 HR). Only Darrell Evans (34 in the 1987 rabbit-ball year) hit more at 40 or older
. Maybe he can still do this or this. I was at both of those games and he is the man forever.
Age 43: Darren Oliver
The 25th man is the just-retired lefty. The last spot was either going to be an 18-year-old minor leaguer or Jason Giambi. I need a tenth pitcher and Mo just wasn't going to give back all that stuff he got during his retirement tour. I could have gone the Satchel Paige route and brought back a 59-year-old Dennis Eckersley or Jack Morris. Even though he's 48 and hasn't pitched since 2008, how about newly-elected Hall of Famer Greg Maddux?
Oliver pitched for so long that this is what happened in his major league debut on September 1, 1993:
It was the bottom of the tenth inning of a 5-5 game at Fenway Park. Tom Henke gives up a two-out single to Billy Hatcher, so Texas skipper Kevin Kennedy called on Oliver to face lefty Mike Greenwell. Hatcher stole second on his first big league pitch (a ball), so Kennedy had Oliver throw three more wide ones to put him on intentionally. Mike Schooler
relieved him after just one batter. Both teams scored twice in the 11th before Texas scored two in the 12th to win 9-7.
Since (at least) 1916, he is the only pitcher to face one batter in his major league debut and intentionally walk him.
He had a great end of his career, striking out Wil Myers and Evan Longoria during a 1-2-3 inning.
Hopefully he'll come back just for the sake of my silly thought experiment.
How would this team do? The Steamer and Oliver projections are on Fangraphs right now and each player's 2014 WAR is listed below (except non-starting position players).
| Pos |
Player |
2014 Age |
Steamer |
Oliver |
2013 fWAR |
| C |
Yadier Molina |
31 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
| 1B |
Joey Votto |
30 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
| 2B |
Matt Carpenter |
28 |
3.9 |
4.8 |
7.0 |
| SS |
Andrelton Simmons |
24 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
| 3B |
Adrian Beltre |
35 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
| OF |
Andrew McCutchen |
27 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
| OF |
Mike Trout |
22 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.4 |
| OF |
Yasiel Puig |
23 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
| DH |
David Ortiz |
38 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
3.8 |
| SP |
Clayton Kershaw |
26 |
3.7 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
| SP |
Chris Sale |
25 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
| SP |
Max Scherzer |
29 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
6.4 |
| SP |
Jose Fernandez |
21 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
4.2 |
| SP |
Bartolo Colon |
41 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
3.9 |
| RP |
Darren Oliver |
43 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| RP |
Craig Breslow |
33 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
| RP |
Brad Ziegler |
34 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
| RP |
Joaquin Benoit |
36 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
| CL |
Koji Uehara |
39 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
3.3 |
The bench is tricky. As far as 2014 is concerned, Correa and Buxton are likely minor leaguers in real life (AA or AAA?). Steamer and Oliver peg Ross at .8 and 1.9 fWAR in 48 and 143 games, respectively. Jeter was sub-replacement in an injury-marred 2013 and is projected for 0.1 fWAR. Ibanez is said to be exactly at replacement level. Gonzalez should be a two-to-three-win player in 2014, but on this hypothetical team, he'd never play enough to accrue that much value. How often would any of these guys play anyway?
Let's say he's a three-win player in 600 plate appearances. If we give him 100 PA between pinch hitting and spot starts for Votto and Ortiz, that gives him 0.5 wins. Put Ross in for 20 or 30 games and he gives you another half-win. Put Jeter and Ibanez at replacement level and Correa and Buxton slightly below and let's just call it a wash with the bench. Exactly 0.0.
Fangraphs has calculated replacement level at 47.7 wins over a full major league season and the correlation between WAR and actual record at .83. The Steamer projection of 64.7 wins comes out to a 101-61 record. The Oliver projection of 68.5 wins comes out to a 105-57 record.
How would this team have done based on the players' 2013 performances? The group above posted a total fWAR of 87.5, meaning their record over a 162-game season would have been a record-breaking 120-42! Makes sense when you have a lineup that looks like this:
Matt Carpenter
Mike Trout
Joey Votto
Andrew McCutchen
David Ortiz
Adrian Beltre
Yasiel Puig
Yadier Molina
Andrelton Simmons
And a Kershaw-Scherzer-Sale-Fernandez-Colon rotation, with Koji closing out games. This roster wouldn't even be that expensive. Their combined salary is just over $166 million, which would have been the third-highest in the game last year, but still behind the Yankees and Dodgers.
Putting this team together was a fun project. If I had put more time into it, I'm sure I could've maximized my combined WAR and perhaps assembled a better team, but for now I like this one.
