Will the A.L. East Have Five Winning Teams in 2013?

Dan Szymborski has posted his ZiPS projections for the American League on ESPN Insider. As expected, he has the East as a very competitive division, with all five teams winning more than they lose.

If the Orioles live up Dan's projection and win 82 games while still finishing at the bottom of the division, they would be the first last-place team to post a winning record. The 2005 Nationals and 1991 Angels are the best cellar-dwellers, going 81-81. Below are the post-1993 last-place teams that lost fewer than 90 games

Year	Division	Team	Wins	Losses
2012	AL West	SEA	75	87
2009	AL West	OAK	75	87
2008	AL Cent	DET	74	88
2007	AL West	TEX	75	87
2006	AL West	SEA	78	84
2001	AL West	TEX	73	89
1998	AL West	OAK	74	88
1997	AL East	TOR	76	86
1996	AL Cent	KC	75	86
1995*	AL West	OAK	67 (75)	77 (87)
1994*	AL East	DET	53 (75)	62 (87)
1994*	AL Cent	MIL	53 (75)	62 (87)
2006	NL West	SF	76	85
2006	NL West	ARZ	76	86
2006	NL West	COL	76	86
2005	NL East	WAS	81	81
2002	NL East	NYM	75	86
2001	NL West	COL	73	89
2000	NL West	SD	76	86
1997	NL West	SD	76	86
1996	NL Cent	PIT	73	89
1995*	NL West	SF	67 (75)	77 (87)
1995*	NL East	MON	66 (74)	78 (88)

* I've included three teams from 1995 and two from 1994 that were on pace to make this list in a strike-shortened season.

The first season of the reincarnated Washington club was a pretty successful one despite the last-place finish. Under skipper Frank Robinson, the Nats had a standout bullpen. Lights-out closer Chad Cordero (225 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, league-leading 47 saves) teamed up with Hector Carrasco and Luis Ayala, who had a combined 2.32 ERA.

The rotation featured good seasons from their top three starters. Livan Hernandez (in a league-high 246.1 IP) and Esteban Loaiza both had sub-4.00 ERA's. John Patterson finished in the top ten in bWAR (4.6), ERA (3.13) and strikeouts (185). There wasn't much behind them however, as Tony Armas Jr. and Ryan Drese both put up an 82 ERA+ in 161 total innings.

The high points for the offense were a 24-homer season from Jose Guillen and a rare healthy season from Nick Johnson. Johnson hit .289/.408/.479 over 547 plate appearances in one of only three seasons in which he batted more than 450 times. The offense was hampered by RFK Stadium, a pitcher's park that the old Senators called home while the new ballpark was constructed. Cristian Guzman came up ten PA's short of qualifying, or else his .219/.260/.314 line would have placed him last in the NL by at least 17 points in all three categories.

Still, an 81-81 season was a pretty solid debut for D.C. They finished eighth out of 16 NL clubs, but fifth in the East. There was parity throughout the Senior Circuit, with only the 100-win Cardinals, 90-win Braves and 89-win Astros doing better than 83-79. The Nationals were last in the division but only three wins from being in third by themselves and nine wins behind front-running Atlanta. Robinson received two first-place votes and came in fourth in the NL Manager of the Year vote.
 
Here's the list covering divisional play from 1969-1993:

Year	Division	Team	Wins	Losses
1992	AL East	BOS	73	89
1991	AL West	CAL	81	81
1990	AL West	MIN	74	88
1987	AL West	CAL	75	87
1987	AL West	TEX	75	87
1986	AL East	BAL	73	89
1982	AL East	CLE	78	84
1982	AL East	TOR	78	84
1975	AL West	CAL	72	89
1987	NL East	CHN	76	85
1986	NL West	ATL	72	89
1984	NL East	PIT	75	87
1983	NL West	CIN	74	88
1980	NL West	SD	73	89
1975	NL East	CHN	75	87
1975	NL East	MON	75	87
1970	NL East	MON	73	89

The Angels had an even more impressive last-place finish in 1991, since the AL West had seven teams. The 95-win worst-to-first Twins won by eight games, but the six clubs behind them were only separated by six games.

Tied for first place on the Fourth of July, the Halos faded into a 17-30 stretch before manager Doug Rader was fired on August 25 for Buck Rodgers. The former Angels catcher guided the team to a 20-18 finish to land at 81-81.

The best part of the team was the pitching staff, led by Jim Abbott. The lefty was in the top five in most categories and finished third in the Cy Young voting. His 7.4 bWAR trailed only Cy winner Roger Clemens. Mark Langston (7.0) finished third in bWAR behind Clemens and Abbott, won 19 games and took home a Gold Glove.

In the pen, closer Bryan Harvey and the historically-underrated Mark Eichorn pitched to a 1.80 combined ERA.

The bats are what doomed them. While the staff was the second-best in the league behind Toronto's, the offense was the second worst, only ahead of a miserable Cleveland team.

Dave Winfield led with 28 homers, Wally Joyner had a strong season (.301/.360/.488, 21 HR) and Luis Polonia hit .296 with 48 steals. The rest of the O struggled with poor seasons from Gary Gaetti, Lance Parrish (.285 OBP), Luis Sojo (73 OPS+), Dick Schofield (61 OPS+) and Dave Parker (76 OPS+ in his final season).


The best pre-expansion last-place team is the 1915 Giants team that went 69-83. That projects out to an 88-loss team over a 162-game schedule. The best AL bottom-feeder from its eight-team days is the 1924 White Sox, who went 66-87 (92 losses in 162 games).


Can the five American League East teams all finish .500 or better? It's a tall task but the conditions are right for this season. There doesn't seem to be one great team in the bunch, which suggests a tightly-packed group from one to five. The other divisions will have some pretty bad teams like the Astros and Twins, which could boost the win totals a bit.

This will be a very fun division to follow in 2013 and I can honestly say I could see any team finishing anywhere between first and last. We'll see if history is made and all five can win 82 games.

#1 Seeds That Barely Win First Game

112 times in the NCAA Tournament, a 16 seed looked to do the impossible and 112 times they have been vanquished by a 1 seed. The Southern University Jaguars gave it an incredible effort, but Gonzaga made them #113. The close call might not bode well for the Bulldogs, who are the 13th top seed to survive the opening game by single digits. Let's see how the other 12 did for the rest of the tourney:

Year	1 Seed	16 Seed	Score	Diff	Finish
1985	Michigan	Fairleigh Dickinson	59-55	4	Lost 2nd Round
1986	Duke	Miss. Valley St.	85-78	7	Lost Champ Game
1986	St. John's	Montana St.	83-74	9	Lost 2nd Round
1989	Illinois	McNeese St.	77-71	6	Lost Final Four
1989	Oklahoma	East Tenn. St.	72-71	1	Lost Sweet 16
1989	Georgetown	Princeton	50-49	1	Lost Elite 8
1990	Oklahoma	Towson	77-68	9	Lost 2nd Round
1990	Michigan St.	Murray St.	75-71 OT	4	Lost Sweet 16
1996	Purdue	Western Carolina	73-71	2	Lost 2nd Round
1996	Connecticut	Colgate	68-59	9	Lost Sweet 16
1997	North Carolina	Fairfield	82-74	8	Lost Final Four
2012 2013	Syracuse Gonzaga	UNC-Asheville Southern	72-65 64-58	7 6	Lost Elite 8 Lost 2nd Round

Four of the previous 12 teams lost their next game. While eight teams made it to the next weekend, three lost in the Sweet 16 and two more were knocked off in the Elite Eight. The 1989 Illini and 1997 Tar Heels made it to the Final Four, as did the 1986 Duke Blue Devils, who lost to Louisville in the title game.

We'll see how Gonzaga fares on Saturday against a tough Wichita State team

UPDATE: They lost

The Last Time Each Team Has Led the Majors in Wins

Below I've listed each MLB team and the most recent season that they've led the majors in wins. The four newest teams (Rockies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rays) as well as the Astros, Padres, Rangers and Blue Jays, have never topped the bigs in victories. For those teams I've listed the year of their highest win total.

Team	Year	Wins	Wins Behind Top Team
Baltimore Orioles	1979	102
Boston Red Sox	2007	96
New York Yankees	2009	103
Tampa Bay Rays	Never	97	2010 (1 behind PHI)
Toronto Blue Jays	Never	99	1985 (2 behind STL)
Chicago White Sox	1983	99
Cleveland Indians	2007	96
Detroit Tigers	1987	98
Kansas City Royals	1977	102
Minnesota Twins	1965	102
Houston Astros	Never	102	1998 (12 behind NYY)
Los Angeles Angels	2008	100
Oakland Athletics	2002	103
Seattle Mariners	2001	116
Texas Rangers	Never	96	2011 (6 behind PHI)
Atlanta Braves	1999	103
Miami Marlins	Never	92	1997 (9 behind ATL)
New York Mets	2006	97
Philadelphia Phillies	2011	102
Washington Nationals	2012	98
Chicago Cubs	1945	98
Cincinnati Reds	1981	66
Milwaukee Brewers	1982	95
Pittsburgh Pirates	1991	98
St. Louis Cardinals	2005	100
Arizona Diamondbacks	Never	100	1999 (3 behind ATL)
Colorado Rockies	Never	92	2009 (11 behind NYY)
Los Angeles Dodgers	1974	102
San Diego Padres	Never	98	1998 (16 behind NYY)
San Francisco Giants	2000	97

Of the 22 teams that have finished with the best record in baseball, only the 2007 Red Sox and 2009 Yankees won the World Series in their most recent season.

Six of these teams won the pennant but lost in the Fall Classic (1945 CHN, 1965 MIN, 1974 LAD, 1979 BAL, 1982 MIL, 1999 ATL).

Nine fell in the League Championship Series (1977 KC, 1983 CWS, 1987 DET, 1991 PIT, 2001 SEA, 2002 OAK, 2005 STL, 2006 NYM, 2007 CLE). For the first four teams listed, it was their only playoff series. The other five clubs at least won their opening series.

That can't be said for the 2000 Giants, 2008 Angels, 2011 Phillies and 2012 Nationals. They all dropped their Division Series matchup. The Giants and Angels lost in four games to the Mets and Red Sox. Philly and Washington were both stunned by the Cardinals in five.

The 1981 Reds are an odd case. Because of the strike the season was cut into two halves, with each division's first-half champ and second-half champ meeting in the playoffs. Cincy went 66-42, but finished in second place in both halves only to watch the Dodgers and Astros meet in the postseason.


For five of the eight teams that have never led MLB, their winningest season is also the year in which they came closest to the top team (Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, Marlins, Diamondbacks). But it's a different story for the Astros, Rockies and Padres. 

Houston won 93 in 1980, ten games behind the Yankees. In the strike-shortened 1981 and 1994 seasons, they were within five and eight games, respectively, of the Reds and Expos.

During Colorado's miracle 2007 season, they won 90 games, six fewer than the Indians and the Red Sox team that defeated them in the World Series.

The Padres were within seven games of the best team on two occasions. Their 89 wins were seven back of Boston and Cleveland in 2007 and in 2010 their 90 wins trailed Philadelphia.

It's worth noting that there were two other seasons in addition to 1985 that saw the Blue Jays finish two behind the majors' top team. They won 96 games in 1987 and 1992, but the Tigers and Braves finished with 98 in those seasons.


Check out the yearly wins grid for every team here.

If the Nationals can repeat as the regular season's best team (and they look loaded), they would be the fourth team of the wild card era to top the majors in back-to-back seasons. The others are the 1995-96 Indians, 2002-03 Yankees, 2004-05 Cardinals and 2010-11 Phillies.

The 2013 Mets and Previous All-Star Game Hosts

For the first time since 1964, the New York Mets will host the All-Star Game. During the franchise's third season, the Midsummer Classic was played at Shea Stadium and it featured one of the most memorable finishes in All-Star history:

David Wright and the Metropolitans will host the game again 49 years later, this time at Citi Field.

So how have previous host teams fared? It's been a mixed bag. Three teams have won the World Series (1939 Yankees, 1959 Dodgers, 1977 Yankees). Five have lost 100 games, including the 109-loss '64 Mets. Their average record is roughly 81-77, with 48 winning records and 34 losing records (the 1987 A's were 81-81).

Here's the list of every All-Star Game host. Keep in mind that there was no game in 1945 due to World War II and that from 1959-62 there were two games per season.

Year	Host	Wins	Losses	Place	Postseason
1933	Chicago White Sox	67	83	6 of 8
1934	New York Giants	93	60	2 of 8
1935	Cleveland Indians	82	71	3 of 8
1936	Boston Bees	71	83	6 of 8
1937	Washington Senators	73	80	6 of 8
1938	Cincinnati Reds	82	68	4 of 8
1939	New York Yankees	106	45	1 of 8	Won WS
1940	St. Louis Cardinals	84	69	3 of 8
1941	Detroit Tigers	75	79	4 of 8
1942	New York Giants	85	67	3 of 8
1943	Philadelphia Athletics	49	105	8 of 8
1944	Pittsburgh Pirates	90	63	2 of 8
1945	No Game (World War II)
1946	Boston Red Sox	104	50	1 of 8	Lost WS
1947	Chicago Cubs	69	85	6 of 8
1948	St. Louis Browns	59	94	6 of 8
1949	Brooklyn Dodgers	97	57	1 of 8	Lost WS
1950	Chicago White Sox	60	94	6 of 8
1951	Detroit Tigers	73	81	5 of 8
1952	Philadelphia Phillies	87	67	4 of 8
1953	Cincinnati Reds	68	86	6 of 8
1954	Cleveland Indians	111	43	1 of 8	Lost WS
1955	Milwaukee Braves	85	69	2 of 8
1956	Washington Senators	59	95	7 of 8
1957	St. Louis Cardinals	87	67	2 of 8
1958	Baltimore Orioles	74	79	6 of 8
1959	Pittsburgh Pirates	78	76	4 of 8
1959	Los Angeles Dodgers	88	68	1 of 8	Won WS
1960	Kansas City Athletics	58	96	8 of 8
1960	New York Yankees	97	57	1 of 8	Lost WS
1961	San Francisco Giants	85	69	3 of 8
1961	Boston Red Sox	76	86	6 of 10
1962	Washington Senators	60	101	10 of 10
1962	Chicago Cubs	59	103	9 of 10
1963	Cleveland Indians	79	83	5 of 10
1964	New York Mets	53	109	10 of 10
1965	Minnesota Twins	102	60	1 of 10	Lost WS
1966	St. Louis Cardinals	83	79	6 of 10
1967	California Angels	84	77	5 of 10
1968	Houston Astros	72	90	10 of 10
1969	Washington Senators	86	76	4 of 6
1970	Cincinnati Reds	102	60	1 of 6	Lost WS
1971	Detroit Tigers	91	71	2 of 6
1972	Atlanta Braves	70	84	4 of 6
1973	Kansas City Royals	88	74	2 of 6
1974	Pittsburgh Pirates	88	74	1 of 6	Lost LCS
1975	Milwaukee Brewers	68	94	5 of 6
1976	Philadelphia Phillies	101	61	1 of 6	Lost LCS
1977	New York Yankees	100	62	1 of 7	Won WS
1978	San Diego Padres	84	78	4 of 6
1979	Seattle Mariners	67	95	6 of 7
1980	Los Angeles Dodgers	92	71	2 of 6
1981	Cleveland Indians	52	51	6 of 7
1982	Montreal Expos	86	76	3 of 6
1983	Chicago White Sox	99	63	1 of 7	Lost LCS
1984	San Francisco Giants	66	96	6 of 6
1985	Minnesota Twins	77	85	4 of 7
1986	Houston Astros	96	66	1 of 6	Lost LCS
1987	Oakland Athletics	81	81	3 of 7
1988	Cincinnati Reds	87	74	2 of 6
1989	California Angels	91	71	3 of 7
1990	Chicago Cubs	77	85	4 of 6
1991	Toronto Blue Jays	91	71	1 of 7	Lost LCS
1992	San Diego Padres	82	80	3 of 6
1993	Baltimore Orioles	85	77	3 of 7
1994	Pittsburgh Pirates	53	61	3 of 5
1995	Texas Rangers	74	70	3 of 4
1996	Philadelphia Phillies	67	95	5 of 5
1997	Cleveland Indians	86	75	1 of 5	Lost WS
1998	Colorado Rockies	77	85	4 of 5
1999	Boston Red Sox	94	68	2 of 5	Lost LCS
2000	Atlanta Braves	95	67	1 of 5	Lost LDS
2001	Seattle Mariners	116	46	1 of 4	Lost LCS
2002	Milwaukee Brewers	56	106	6 of 6
2003	Chicago White Sox	86	76	2 of 5
2004	Houston Astros	92	70	2 of 6	Lost LCS
2005	Detroit Tigers	71	91	4 of 5
2006	Pittsburgh Pirates	67	95	6 of 6
2007	San Francisco Giants	71	91	5 of 5
2008	New York Yankees	89	73	3 of 5
2009	St. Louis Cardinals	91	71	1 of 6	Lost LDS
2010	Los Angeles Angels	80	82	3 of 4
2011	Arizona Diamondbacks	94	68	1 of 5	Lost LDS
2012	Kansas City Royals	72	90	3 of 5

19 host teams won their league/division title and with two second-place wild card winners that makes 21 postseason qualifiers. The 21 teams break down nicely among the pre-expansion era, the 1969-1994 four-division era and wild card era with seven teams apiece.

Among the host teams are the 111-win 1954 Indians and the 2001 Mariners that won 116 games to tie the all-time record. Both teams fizzled out in the playoffs as the Tribe was dropped in a stunning World Series sweep by the Giants and the M's fell to the Yankees in the ALCS.

The only pennant-winning host team of the last 35 years was the 1997 Indians, who were two outs away from the championship before the Marlins rallied to win in Game Seven.


As for the 2013 Mets? They're not on par with NL powers like the Nationals, Reds, Dodgers or defending champion Giants, but even PECOTA projects an 82-80 season. Considering that the last ten All-Star hosts are a combined 813-807, the Mets should fit in well with these average teams.